全球变暖背景下春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流年际对应关系的多模式预估

周波涛. 全球变暖背景下春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流年际对应关系的多模式预估[J]. 地球物理学报, 2012, 55(11): 3517-3526, doi: 10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.11.001
引用本文: 周波涛. 全球变暖背景下春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流年际对应关系的多模式预估[J]. 地球物理学报, 2012, 55(11): 3517-3526, doi: 10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.11.001
ZHOU Bo-Tao. Multi-model projection of the interannual relationship between spring Hadley circulation and East Asian summer circulation under global warming[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 2012, 55(11): 3517-3526, doi: 10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.11.001
Citation: ZHOU Bo-Tao. Multi-model projection of the interannual relationship between spring Hadley circulation and East Asian summer circulation under global warming[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 2012, 55(11): 3517-3526, doi: 10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.11.001

全球变暖背景下春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流年际对应关系的多模式预估

详细信息
  • 中图分类号: P467

Multi-model projection of the interannual relationship between spring Hadley circulation and East Asian summer circulation under global warming

  • 观测事实揭示,春季Hadley环流在年际时间尺度上与东亚夏季风环流和降水具有密切联系.在未来全球变暖背景下,春季Hadley环流与东亚夏季风环流和降水的这种年际关系是否会发生变化?针对该问题,本文在评估的基础上选取五个气候模式,分析了A1B排放情景下春季北半球Hadley环流年际变率的未来变化及其与东亚夏季风环流和降水的年际关系.多模式集合(MME)预估结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,与20世纪末期(1970—1999年)相比,到21世纪末期(2070—2099年),春季北半球Hadley环流的年际变率强度将减弱,减弱幅度达32%.随着春季Hadley环流年际变率的减弱,其与夏季西太平洋副热带高压和东亚夏季风强度的联系将变弱.MME模拟结果还显示,春季Hadley环流与夏季东亚西风急流和降水的关系也降低,但各单个模式间存在较大差异.
  • 加载中
  • [1]

    Bjerknes J. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 1969, 97(3): 163-172.

    [2]

    Oort A H, Peixóto J P. Global angular momentum and energy balance requirements from observations. Adv. Geophys., 1983, 25: 355-490.

    [3]

    周波涛, 王会军, 崔绚. Hadley环流与北太平洋涛动的显著关系. 地球物理学报, 2008, 51(4): 999-1006. Zhou B T, Wang H J, Cui X. Significant relationship between Hadley circulation and North Pacific oscillation. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2008, 51(4): 999-1006.

    [4]

    Chang E K M. The influence of Hadley circulation intensity changes on extratropical climate in an idealized model. J. Atmos. Sci., 1995, 52(11): 2006- 2024.

    [5]

    Hou A Y. Hadley circulation as a modulator of the extratropical climate. J. Atmos. Sci., 1998, 55(14): 2437-2457.

    [6]

    Wang C Z. Atmospheric circulation cells associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Clim., 2002, 15(4): 399-419.

    [7]

    周波涛, 王会军. Hadley环流变化与白令海海冰异常的关系. 科学通报, 2007, 52(18): 2194-2198. Zhou B T, Wang H J. Relationship between Hadley circulation and sea ice extent in the Bering Sea. Chinese Sci. Bull., 2008, 53(3): 444-449.

    [8]

    范可. 南半球环流异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系. 地球物理学报, 2006, 49(3): 672-679. Fan K. Atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere and summer rainfall over Yangtze River Valley. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2006, 49(3): 672-679.

    [9]

    范可, 王会军, Choi Y J. 一个长江中下游夏季降水的物理统计预测模型. 科学通报, 2007, 52(24): 2900-2905. Fan K, Wang H J, Choi Y J. A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze Valley summer rainfall. Chinese Sci. Bull., 2008, 53(4): 602-609.

    [10]

    Li C Y. Interaction between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Nino events. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 1990, 7(1): 36-46.

    [11]

    Zhou B T, Wang H J. Relationship between the boreal spring Hadley circulation and the summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley. J. Geophys. Res., 2006, 111: D16109, doi: 10.1029/2005JD007006.

    [12]

    周波涛, 崔绚. 春季Hadley环流与长江流域夏季降水关系的数值模拟. 气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(2): 182-188. Zhou B T, Cui X. Modeling the relationship between spring Hadley circulation and the summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 2008, 13(2): 182-188.

    [13]

    Zhou B T, Cui X. Hadley circulation signal in the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 2008, 113: D16107, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009156.

    [14]

    周波涛, 崔绚. Hadley环流异常对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋频数影响的数值模拟试验. 地球物理学报, 2009, 52(12): 2958-2963. Zhou B T, Cui X. Modeling the influence of spring Hadley circulation on the summer tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2009, 52(12): 2958-2963.

    [15]

    Quan X W, Diaz H F, Hoerling M P. Change of the tropical Hadley cell since 1950. // Diaz H F, Bradley R S. The Hadley Circulation: Past, Present, and Future. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004: 85-120.

    [16]

    Tanaka H L, Ishizaki N, Kitoh A. Trend and interannual variability of Walker, monsoon and Hadley circulations defined by velocity potential in the upper troposphere. Tellus, 2004, 56A(3): 250-269.

    [17]

    周波涛, 王会军. Hadley环流的年际和年代际变化特征及其与热带海温的关系. 地球物理学报, 2006, 49(5): 1271-1278. Zhou B T, Wang H J. Interannual and interdecadal variations of the Hadley circulation and its connection with tropical sea surface temperature. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2006, 49(5): 1271-1278.

    [18]

    Kobayashi C, Maeda S. Phase shift of the seasonal cycle in the Hadley Circulation in recent decades. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2006, 33: L22703, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027682.

    [19]

    Hu Y, Fu Q. Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2007, 7: 5229-5236.

    [20]

    Seidel D J, Randel W J. Recent widening of the tropical belt: Evidence from tropopause observations. J. Geophys. Res., 2007, 112: D20113, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008861.

    [21]

    Tanaka H L, Ishizaki N, Nohara D. Intercomparison of the intensities and trends of Hadley, Walker and monsoon circulations in the global warming projections. SOLA, 2005, 1: 77-80.

    [22]

    Lu J, Vecchi G A, Reichler T. Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2007, 34: L06805, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028443.

    [23]

    姜大膀, 张颖, 孙建奇. 中国地区1~3 ℃变暖的集合预估分析. 科学通报, 2009, 54(24): 3870-3877. Jiang D B, Zhang Y, Sun J Q. Ensemble projection of 1~3 ℃ warming in China. Chinese Sci. Bull., 2009, 54(18): 3326-3334.

    [24]

    Oort A H, Yienger J J. Observed interannual variability in the Hadley circulation and its connection to ENSO. J. Clim., 1996, 9(11): 2751-2767.

    [25]

    Lu R Y. Interannual variability of the summertime North Pacific subtropical high and its relation to atmospheric convection over the warm pool. J. Meteor. Soc. Jpn., 2001, 79(3): 771-783.

    [26]

    张庆云, 陶诗言, 陈烈庭. 东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流. 气象学报, 2003, 61(5): 559-567. Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y, Chen L T. The interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon indices and its association with the pattern of general circulation over East Asia. Acta Meteorol. Sin. (in Chinese), 2003, 61(5): 559-567.

    [27]

    Mitas C M, Clement A. Recent behavior of the Hadley cell and tropical thermodynamics in climate models and reanalyses. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2006, 33: L01810, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024406.

    [28]

    Gastineau G, Treut H L, Li L. Hadley circulation changes under global warming conditions indicated by coupled climate models. Tellus, 2008, 60(5): 863-884.

    [29]

    Frierson D M W. Robust increases in midlatitude static stability in simulations of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2006, 33: L24816, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027504.

    [30]

    Eyring V, Waugh D W, Bodeker G E, et al. Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. J. Geophys. Res., 2007, 112: D16303, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008332.

  • 加载中
计量
  • 文章访问数:  2963
  • PDF下载数:  291718
  • 施引文献:  0
出版历程
收稿日期:  2011-09-07
修回日期:  2012-11-03
上线日期:  2012-11-20

目录