Improved GRACE constrained forward modeling and its application to the estimation of terrestrial water storage change in the Lake Nipigon
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摘要:
准确估计北美尼皮贡湖的陆地水储量(Terrestrial Water Storage，TWS)变化对该区域水资源调控具有重要意义.GRACE和GRACE-FO时变重力场被广泛用于定量估计TWS变化，然而截断与滤波处理会削弱信号幅度，造成信号泄漏.对于小区域尺度的研究，该现象尤为显著.约束正演法能减小泄漏误差，但是面对多质量块，传统迭代策略的收敛性能受初值影响大.为此，本文采用多个质量块分批迭代的策略，改进约束正演法在尼皮贡湖的收敛性能.模拟实验结果表明，在无偏差空间约束下，本文方法与逐格网点同时迭代和多个质量块同时迭代的策略相比，在尼皮贡湖区域绝对偏差的均方根分别降低了2.27 mm·a-1和1.77 mm·a-1.进一步，利用改进方法估计尼皮贡湖TWS变化，并与卫星测高数据进行对比.研究结果表明，本文方法显著降低了尼皮贡湖TWS的信号泄漏影响，恢复后的TWS信号幅度约为逐格网点同时迭代和多个质量块同时迭代策略的1.2倍.经泄漏改正后，GRACE/GRACE-FO反演的尼皮贡湖TWS与卫星测高水位变化时间序列的长期趋势相吻合.本文可为研究其他小尺度区域TWS提供一定参考.
Abstract:It is of great significance for water resource regulation to accurately estimate the Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) change in the Lake Nipigon. The GRACE and GRACE-FO temporal gravity fields are widely applied to quantitatively estimate TWS change. However, truncation and filtering can weaken signal amplitude and cause signal leakage, especially for the study of small-scale regions. The constrained forward modeling can reduce the leakage error, but the convergence performance of the traditional iteration strategy is greatly affected by the initial value under multiple mass blocks. In this paper, the convergence performance of constrained forward modeling in the Lake Nipigon is improved by using the strategy of batched iteration of multiple mass blocks. Simulation experiments show that without spatial deviation, the root-mean-square of absolute deviation in the Lake Nipigon for our method is 2.27 mm·a-1 and 1.77 mm·a-1 lower than the strategy of synchronized iteration of each grid point and multiple mass blocks, respectively. Furthermore, the improved method is adopted to estimate the TWS change of the Lake Nipigon, which is compared with satellite altimetry data. The results show that our method can significantly correct the signal leakage of the TWS in the Nipigon Lake, and the amplitude of the restored TWS signal is about 1.2 times of that from simultaneous iteration of each grid point and multiple mass blocks. After leakage correction, the TWS of the Lake Nipigon derived from the GRACE/GRACE-FO is in good agreement with the long-term trend of the time series of water level change measured by satellite altimetry. This paper can provide a certain reference for the study of TWS in other small-scale regions.
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Key words:
- Forward modeling /
- Terrestrial Water Storage /
- GRACE /
- Lake Nipigon
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图 3
2004-04—2007-04的合成模拟数据(GNS)导出的模拟观测值(a)和模拟真值(b)
Figure 3.
Simulated observed values (a) and simulated true values (b) derived from synthetic simulated data (GNS) from April 2004 to April 2007
图 4
策略C(启动准则K为0至100，步长为5)在尼皮贡湖区域的统计结果
Figure 4.
Statistical results of strategy C (K from 0 to 100) for lake Nipigon
图 5
策略B、C(K＝15)在尼皮贡湖区域的绝对偏差散点图
Figure 5.
Scatter plots of absolute deviations for strategies B and C (K=15) in the Lake Nipigon
图 6
五种水文模型的标准差格网值(a)—(e)和融合后的水文模型导出的2004-04—2007-04等效水高速率(f)
Figure 6.
The standard deviation grid values (a)—(e) of the five hydrological models and the equivalent height thickness rate (f) from April 2004 to April 2007 were derived from the integrated hydrological model
图 7
2004年4月至2007年4月期间GRACE/GRACE-FO观测值(a)和三种策略的空间残差(b)—(d)，空间残差为截断并滤波后的建模值减去GRACE/GRACE-FO观测值(a)
Figure 7.
GRACE/GRACE-FO observations (a) from April 2004 to April 2007 and spatial residuals (b)—(d) for the three strategies, the spatial residuals are the truncated and filtered modeling values minus GRACE/GRACE-FO observations (a)
图 8
(a) 泄漏改正前GRACE/GRACE-FO反演的尼皮贡湖TWS变化时间序列、水位温度效应和WGHM导出的地下水乘以10；泄漏改正后GRACE/GRACE-FO反演的尼皮贡湖TWS变化时间序列，卫星测高水位变化时间序列(c)的十三个月滑动均值(e). (b)、(d)和(f)分别为(a)、(c)和(e)中时间序列的频谱分析. 图中线性趋势估值的不确定度通过拟合残差估计
Figure 8.
(a) GRACE/GRACE-FO inversion of Lake Nipigon TWS before leakage correction, Changes in water level affected by temperature effects and WGHM-derived groundwater changes times 10; The satellite altimetry water level change time series and GRACE/GRACE-FO inversion of Lake Nipigon TWS after leakage correction (c) and their 13-month moving mean(e); (b), (d) and (f) are the spectrum analysis of time series in (a), (c) and (e), respectively. The uncertainty in the linear trend in the figure is estimated by the fitting residuals
表 1
尼皮贡湖绝对偏差的RMS(单位：mm·a-1).
Table 1.
RMS with absolute deviation in Lake Nipigon (unit: mm·a-1).
空间约束 A B C(K=15) (1) 8.87(64.18) 8.37(71.00) 6.60(58.37) (2) 9.26 9.02 8.16 (3) 12.75 11.99 9.52 (4) 16.22 14.67 11.29 注：括号内为残余信号实验结果. 
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