Construction of multi-extreme climate events composite grads index and comprehensive analysis of extreme climate in the Yangtze River Basin from 1961 to 2020
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摘要:
本文利用经过均一化订正的长江流域共669个气象站近60年(1961—2020年)逐日观测资料，采用相对阈值和绝对阈值相结合的极值分析方法，对长江流域近60年极端高温事件、极端低温事件、极端干旱事件和极端降水事件进行识别，分析了年发生频率和线性变化趋势.在此基础上，考虑到全国极端气候事件发生情况，构建了多个极端气候事件综合危险性等级指标，比较客观地给出了长江流域极端气候事件综合危险性等级.研究结果表明，相对于全国其他地区，长江流域大部分地区极端气候综合危险性等级较高，虽然自1961年以来综合年发生频率呈现弱的线性减少趋势，但自20世纪90年代以来，长江流域极端气候事件发生的危险性相对于全国其他地区明显偏高.通过对不同极端气候事件危险性和变化规律研究，结果表明：长江流域近60年极端干旱事件年发生频率呈现线性减少趋势，与全国他其区域相比较，长江流域大部分地区极端干旱发生的危险性等级都在中级以上，说明长江流域容易发生极端干旱事件；长江流域近60年极端降水事件年发生频率呈现弱的增加趋势，危险性等级指数分析表明，高危险区主要位于长江中下游地区，湖南西部、江西大部、湖北南部等地发生极端降水事件的危险性很高；近60年长江流域大部分地区极端高温事件显著增加，尤其进入21世纪以来发生更加频繁，但相对于全国其他地区，危险性等级较低；近60年长江流域极端低温事件显著减少，但相对于全国其他地区，极端低温事件发生的危险性增加明显.进入21世纪以来，长江流域极端气候事件的综合危险性不断增加，极端高温和极端干旱相伴而生的高温干旱复合型事件频繁发生，极端降水事件和极端低温事件在全国的占比不断升高，造成的社会经济影响越来越严重，说明长江流域加强极端气候事件风险防范的重要性和紧迫性.
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关键词:
- 极端气候事件 /
- 多个极端事件综合等级指标 /
- 气候变化 /
- 长江流域
Abstract:This paper uses the daily observation data of 669 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin for the past 60 years (1961—2020) after homogenization and correction, and adopts the extreme value analysis method combining relative threshold and absolute threshold to identify the extreme high temperature events, extreme low temperature events, extreme drought events and extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River Basin in the past 60 years, also the annual occurrence probability and linear change trend were analyzed. Considering the occurrence of extreme climate events across the country based on this, Muti-Extreme events Composite grads Index (MECI) was constructed, and the comprehensive risk level of extreme climate events in the Yangtze River Basin was analyzed. The research results show that compared with other regions of the country, the comprehensive risk level of extreme climate in most parts of the Yangtze River Basin was higher. Although the comprehensive annual occurrence frequency has shown a linear decrease trend since 1961, the comprehensive risk level of extreme climate events in Yangtze River Basin was significantly higher than that of other parts of the country since the 1990s. Through the individual analysis of different extreme climate events, the results show that the annual frequency of extreme drought events in the Yangtze River Basin has shown a linear decreasing trend in the past 60 years. Compared with other regions of this country, the risk level of extreme drought in most parts of the Yangtze River Basin was above the intermediate level, indicating that Yangtze River Basin was prone to extreme drought events. The annual frequency of extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River Basin showed a weak increasing trend in the past 60 years, MECI analysis showed that the high-risk areas are mainly located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the risk of extreme precipitation events was very high in western Hunan, most of Jiangxi and southern Hubei. Extreme high temperature events in most areas of the Yangtze River Basin had increased significantly in the past 60 years, especially since the beginning of this century. But the risk level of extreme high temperature events was relatively low compared with other areas in China. In the past 60 years, extreme low temperature events in the Yangtze River Basin had decreased significantly, but compared with other parts of the country, the risk level was increased. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the comprehensive risk level of extreme climatic events in the Yangtze River Basin was increasing, high temperature and drought compound type events occurred frequently. The proportion of extreme precipitation events and extreme low temperature events in the country was continued to increase. In recent years, the social and economic impacts caused by extreme climate events have become more and more serious, indicating that it was of great importance and urgency to strengthen the risk prevention of extreme climate events in the Yangtze River Basin.
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图 1
长江流域代表站点分布图
Figure 1.
Distribution map of representative stations in the Yangtze River Basin
图 2
长江流域极端气候事件危险性等级(1981—2010年)
Figure 2.
Map of risk levels for different extreme climate events in Yangtze River Basin from 1981 to 2010
图 3
长江流域极端气候事件年发生频率历史演变(1961—2020年)
Figure 3.
Historical evolution of annual frequency of extreme climate events in the Yangtze River Basin from 1961 to 2020
图 4
长江流域极端气候事件年发生频率线性变化趋势(1961—2020年)
Figure 4.
Spatial distribution of annual frequency linear trend of extreme climate events in the Yangtze River Basin from 1961 to 2020
图 5
长江流域极端气候综合危险性等级(1981—2010年)
Figure 5.
Comprehensive risk level of extreme climate in the Yangtze River Basin from 1981 to 2010
图 6
1961—2020年长江流域极端气候综合年发生频率(a)和综合年危险等级(b)历史演变，图中直线为线性趋势
Figure 6.
Comprehensive annual frequency (a) and comprehensive annual risk level (b) of extreme climate in the Yangtze River Basin from 1961 to 2020. Straight line shows a linear trend
图 7
1961—2020年长江流域极端气候综合年发生频率线性趋势(a)和综合年危险等级线性趋势(b)，图中斜线为信度检验超过0.05的区域
Figure 7.
The linear trends of comprehensive annual frequency (a) and comprehensive annual risk level (b) of extreme climate in the Yangtze River Basin from 1961 to 2020. The slanted areas in the figure are those that have passed the reliability test by 0.05
图 8
长江流域极端干旱和极端高温(a)、极端降水和极端低温(b)特高级和高级危险站数占全国同级别站数百分比历史演变(1961—2020年)(单位：%)
Figure 8.
The historical evolution of the percentage of extra-high and high risk stations of extreme drought and extreme heat (a) and extreme precipitation and extreme cold (b) to the same level stations in China (Unit: %)
图 9
长江流域极端气候综合危险不同等级站数占全国同级别站数百分比历史演变(1961—2020年)(单位：%)
Figure 9.
Historical evolution of the percentage of stations with different comprehensive risk levels of extreme climate in the Yangtze River Basin to stations with the same level in China from 1961 to 2020 (Unit: %)
表 1
单个极端事件的判别指标和含义
Table 1.
Discriminant index and meaning of different extreme climate events
序号 指标名称 指标代码 指标含义 单位 1 极端干旱 SPI90 过去90天降水量的SPI达到重旱以上程度 2 极端降水 RX3day 3天降水量超过第90个百分位的阈值，且3天降水量不低于30 mm mm 3 极端高温 TX1day 日最高气温超过第90个百分位的阈值 ℃ 4 极端低温 TN1day 日最低气温不超过第10个百分位的阈值 ℃ 
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表 2
中国范围极端事件的危险性等级判别标准(1981—2010年)
Table 2.
Standard for classification of extreme climate events risk in China from 1981 to 2010
序号 指标名称 指标代码 4特高级 3高级 2中级 1低级 1 极端干旱 Hdry ≥7.71% 7.71%~7.14% 7.14%~6.55% < 6.55% 2 极端降水 Hrain ≥8.16% 8.16%~6.14% 6.14%~3.43% < 3.43% 3 极端高温 Htx ≥10.98% 10.98%~10.49% 10.49%~9.98% < 9.98% 4 极端低温 Htn ≥10.53% 10.53%~9.90% 9.90%~9.03% < 9.03% 5 综合指标 MECI ≥10.00% 10.00%~9.00% 9.00%~7.00% < 7.00%
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表 3
长江流域极端气候事件不同等级危险性站点在全国范围所占比例(单位：%)
Table 3.
Proportion of different risk stations of extreme climate events in the Yangtze River Basin in China (Unit: %)
等级 极端干旱 极端降水 极端高温 极端低温 综合 上游 中下游 全流域 上游 中下游 全流域 上游 中下游 全流域 上游 中下游 全流域 上游 中下游 全流域 特高 17.95 11.97 29.91 0 62.56 62.56 6.55 6.55 13.1 29.33 17.33 46.67 11.88 31.25 43.12 高 13.12 18.33 31.45 1.33 40 41.33 4.46 10.04 14.51 20.13 27.65 47.79 12.65 29.2 41.85 中 11.65 19.03 30.68 31.66 11.09 42.75 8.12 22.9 31.02 11.26 22.52 33.78 14.56 13.19 27.75 低 10.22 17.69 27.91 5.64 0 5.64 20.07 20.29 40.35 4.21 8.98 13.19 9.98 5.63 15.61
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