南太平洋和北太平洋年代际振荡与华北盛夏降水的关系及可能物理机制

李刚, 李崇银, 晏红明, 江晓华, 鞠永茂. 2020. 南太平洋和北太平洋年代际振荡与华北盛夏降水的关系及可能物理机制. 地球物理学报, 63(11): 3952-3966, doi: 10.6038/cjg2020N0417
引用本文: 李刚, 李崇银, 晏红明, 江晓华, 鞠永茂. 2020. 南太平洋和北太平洋年代际振荡与华北盛夏降水的关系及可能物理机制. 地球物理学报, 63(11): 3952-3966, doi: 10.6038/cjg2020N0417
LI Gang, LI ChongYin, YAN HongMing, JIANG XiaoHua, JU YongMao. 2020. The relationships of mid-summer rainfall over North China with North Pacific Decadal Oscillation and South Pacific Decadal Oscillation and their possible physical mechanisms. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 63(11): 3952-3966, doi: 10.6038/cjg2020N0417
Citation: LI Gang, LI ChongYin, YAN HongMing, JIANG XiaoHua, JU YongMao. 2020. The relationships of mid-summer rainfall over North China with North Pacific Decadal Oscillation and South Pacific Decadal Oscillation and their possible physical mechanisms. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 63(11): 3952-3966, doi: 10.6038/cjg2020N0417

南太平洋和北太平洋年代际振荡与华北盛夏降水的关系及可能物理机制

  • 基金项目:

    国家自然科学基金(U1902209,42030603),西南区域重点项目(2014-4)资助

详细信息
    作者简介:

    李刚, 男, 1983年生, 博士, 主要从事天气及气候变化研究.E-mail:ligang.1983@163.com

    通讯作者: 晏红明, 女, 研究员, 主要从事季风气候研究.E-mail:y-hm@netease.com
  • 中图分类号: P461

The relationships of mid-summer rainfall over North China with North Pacific Decadal Oscillation and South Pacific Decadal Oscillation and their possible physical mechanisms

More Information
  • 利用降水、大气环流和海表温度等多种再分析资料和偏相关方法,研究了1951—2007年南太平洋年代际振荡(SPDO)和北太平洋年代际振荡(即PDO,本文称为NPDO)分别与华北盛夏(7—8月)降水在年代际时间尺度上的关系及其可能物理机制.结果表明:在去除SPDO和NPDO的相关性之前,它们与华北盛夏降水的关系均偏弱;但在去除两者相关性之后,SPDO(NPDO)与华北盛夏降水存在显著正(负)相关关系.去除两者相关性之后,当SPDO处于正位相时,热带西北太平洋海温异常显著偏暖,这将在对流层中下层从热带西太平洋—东亚沿岸激发出"气旋-反气旋-气旋"的负位相东亚—太平洋型遥相关(EAP)波列,该波列导致东亚夏季风异常增强,有利于低纬地区水汽输送至华北地区,从而使得华北盛夏降水异常偏多,反之,当SPDO处于负位相时,华北盛夏降水异常将偏少;对NPDO来说,当其处于正位相时,不仅热带西北太平洋异常显著偏冷,而且印度洋大部分海温异常显著偏暖,在两者共同作用下,对流层中下层从热带西太平洋—东亚沿岸出现"反气旋-气旋-反气旋"的正位相EAP波列,这将引起东亚夏季风异常减弱,不利于低纬地区水汽输送至华北地区,华北盛夏降水异常因此减少,反之,当NPDO处于负位相时,华北盛夏降水异常将偏多.

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  • 图 1 

    1951—2007年盛夏(a)SPDO和(b)NPDO标准化时间序列(蓝线).红线表示SI9和NI9,绿线表示SI9r和NI9r

    Figure 1. 

    Normalized time series (blue line) of mid-summer (a) SPDO and (b) NPDO during 1951—2007. The red lines indicate SI9 and NI9, and the green lines indicate SI9r and NI9r

    图 2 

    1951—2007年盛夏(a)SI9和(b)NI9与基于GPCC V6资料的9年滑动平均后降水异常的相关系数分布.(c)和(d)同(a)和(b),但是基于CRU TS 3.1资料

    Figure 2. 

    Correlations of (a) SI9 and (b) NI9 with mid-summer 9-year running mean of rainfall anomalies over the eastern China based on GPCC V6 dataset from 1951 to 2007. (c), (d) As in (a), (b), but based on the CRU TS 3.1 dataset

    图 3 

    1951—2007年盛夏(a)SI9(红线)和SI9r(绿线)与(b)NI9(红线)和NI9r(绿线)标准化时间序列.蓝线表示基于GPCC V6降水资料的盛夏NCRI9标准化时间序列

    Figure 3. 

    Normalized time series of mid-summer (a) SI9 (red line) and SI9r (green line), and (b) NI9 (red line) and NI9r (green line) during 1951—2007. The blue lines indicate the normalized time series of mid-summer NCRI9

    图 4 

    图 2,但为偏相关

    Figure 4. 

    As in Fig. 2, but for the partial correlations

    图 5 

    1951—2007年(a)SI9和(b)NI9与9年滑动平均后盛夏太平洋—印度洋海表温度异常的偏相关系数分布

    Figure 5. 

    Partial correlations of (a) SI9 and (b) NI9 with mid-summer 9-year running mean of SST anomalies over the Pacific and Indian Ocean from 1951 to 2007

    图 6 

    1951—2007年(a)SI9和(b)NI9与9年滑动平均后盛夏500 hPa位势高度异常的偏相关系数分布

    Figure 6. 

    Partial correlations of (a) SI9 and (b) NI9 with mid-summer 9-year running mean of 500 hPa geopotential height (hgt) anomalies from 1951 to 2007

    图 7 

    图 6,但为海平面气压异常

    Figure 7. 

    As in Fig. 6, but for sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies

    图 8 

    1951—2007年(a)SI9和(b)NI9与9年滑动平均后盛夏低层(850~700 hPa)风场异常的偏相关系数分布

    Figure 8. 

    Partial correlations of (a) SI9 and (b) NI9 with mid-summer 9-year running mean of low-level (850~700 hPa) wind anomalies from 1951 to 2007

    图 9 

    1951—2007年盛夏IEAP9(红线)和NCRI9(蓝线)、(a)SI9r(绿线)和(b)NI9r(绿线)标准化时间序列

    Figure 9. 

    Normalized time series of mid-summer IEAP9 (red line), NCRI9 (blue line), (a) SI9r (green line) and (b) NI9r (green line) during 1951—2007

    图 10 

    1951—2007年(a)SI9和(b)NI9与9年滑动平均后盛夏整层(地面~300 hPa)水汽输送异常的偏相关系数分布

    Figure 10. 

    Partial correlations of (a) SI9 and (b) NI9 with mid-summer 9-year running mean of vertically integrated (from surface to 300 hPa) moisture flux anomalies (vectors) and its divergence anomalies (shading) from 1951 to 2007

    图 11 

    1951—2007年(a)SI9和(b)NI9与9年滑动平均后盛夏500 hPa垂直速度异常的偏相关系数分布

    Figure 11. 

    Partial correlations of (a) SI9 and (b) NI9 with mid-summer 9-year running mean of vertical velocity anomalies from 1951 to 2007

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收稿日期:  2020-02-29
修回日期:  2020-07-07
上线日期:  2020-11-05

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