东北冷涡对海河流域初夏降水异常的影响

何丽烨, 马宁, 郭军. 2017. 东北冷涡对海河流域初夏降水异常的影响. 地球物理学报, 60(10): 3745-3752, doi: 10.6038/cjg20171005
引用本文: 何丽烨, 马宁, 郭军. 2017. 东北冷涡对海河流域初夏降水异常的影响. 地球物理学报, 60(10): 3745-3752, doi: 10.6038/cjg20171005
HE Li-Ye, MA Ning, GUO Jun. 2017. The impact of the Northeast Cold Vortex on early summer precipitation anomalies in the Haihe River Basin. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 60(10): 3745-3752, doi: 10.6038/cjg20171005
Citation: HE Li-Ye, MA Ning, GUO Jun. 2017. The impact of the Northeast Cold Vortex on early summer precipitation anomalies in the Haihe River Basin. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 60(10): 3745-3752, doi: 10.6038/cjg20171005

东北冷涡对海河流域初夏降水异常的影响

  • 基金项目:

    公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项)(GYHY201506001-1)和天津市气象局博士基金项目(201628bsjj01)资助

详细信息
    作者简介:

    何丽烨, 女, 1985年生, 工程师, 主要从事气候预测和气候变化研究.E-mail:heliyehly@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P461

The impact of the Northeast Cold Vortex on early summer precipitation anomalies in the Haihe River Basin

  • 东北冷涡是东亚中高纬度地区的重要天气系统,其频繁活动可能导致显著的气候效应,不仅对东北局地,而且对海河流域地区初夏降水产生影响.本文利用海河流域34个地面气象台站逐日降水资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对东北冷涡与海河流域初夏降水的关系进行研究,结果表明:初夏东北冷涡活动与海河流域降水存在显著的相关关系,对其空间分布亦有重要影响.当东北冷涡活动偏多(少)时,海河流域北部地区(尤其是海河下游)初夏降水可能偏多(少),对应时间系数为正(负)时海河流域初夏降水EOF第二模态北多(少)南少(多)的空间分布.在东北冷涡活动偏多年,东北冷涡引导北方"干冷"空气南下推进至海河流域北部,伴随该地区源自西风带水汽输送和水汽辐合的增强,形成了"上干下湿"的不稳定层结,在上升运动的触发下,导致海河流域北部初夏降水偏多;而东北冷涡活动偏少年情况正好相反.东北冷涡活动为海河流域尤其是海河下游地区初夏降水预测提供了具有参考意义的结果,其活动指数与海河下游初夏降水距平的符号一致率在近30年高达83%.

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  • 图 1 

    1961—2010年逐年初夏(6月,下同)东北冷涡500 hPa位势高度低压中心在115°E—125°E区域的最南位置

    Figure 1. 

    Southernmost locations of the low pressure center at 500 hPa during the NECV (Northeast Cold Vortex) events over 115°E—125°E in annual early summer (June, the same below) from 1961 to 2010

    图 2 

    (a) 1961—2010年初夏NECVI指数(标准化东北冷涡活动指数,下同)与海河流域降水的相关分布(圆圈表示海河流域34个台站分布;阴影表示置信度水平达到95%的区域);(b) 1961—2010年海河流域初夏降水量场EOF第二模态空间分布型

    Figure 2. 

    (a) Distribution of correlation coefficients between the NECVI (Northeast Cold Vortex Index, the same below) and precipitation in the Haihe River Basin during early summer from 1961 to 2010. The circles indicate distribution of 34 stations in the Haihe River Basin. Shaded areas denote the values exceeding 95% confidence level. (b) The second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spatial mode of precipitation in the Haihe River Basin during early summer from 1961 to 2010

    图 3 

    1961—2010年初夏NECVI指数和海河流域降水指数HRBPI时间序列(a)与海河流域初夏降水量场EOF第二模态标准化时间系数(b)的对应关系

    Figure 3. 

    Standardized time series of the NECVI and the HRBPI (Haihe River Basin Precipitation Index) (a) and time coefficient of the second EOF mode of precipitation in the Haihe River Basin (b) during early summer from 1961 to 2010

    图 4 

    1961—2010年初夏NECVI指数与天津地区平均降水量的15年滑动相关系数(曲线)

    Figure 4. 

    15-year sliding correlation coefficients (curve) between the NECVI and average precipitation in Tianjin during early summer from 1961 to 2010

    图 5 

    200 hPa(a)、500 hPa(b)和850 hPa(c)位势高度场在初夏东北冷涡活动异常偏多和偏少年的合成差异(单位:gpm)

    Figure 5. 

    Composite differences in geopotential height at 200 hPa (a), 500 hPa (b), and 850 hPa (c) pressure levels between more and less cold vortex years chosen by early summer over Northeast China (unit: gpm)

    图 7 

    850 hPa水平风场(a,单位:m·s-1)和整层水汽输送(矢量,单位:kg·m-1·s-1)及其散度(等值线,单位:10-6kg·m-2·s-1)(b)在初夏东北冷涡活动异常偏多和偏少年的合成差异

    Figure 7. 

    Composite differences in 850 hPa winds (a) (unit: m·s-1) and the whole layer water vapor transportation (vector, unit: kg·m-1·s-1) and its divergence (contour, unit: 10-6kg·m-2·s-1) (b) between more and less cold vortex years chosen by early summer over Northeast China

    图 6 

    850 hPa温度场在初夏东北冷涡活动异常偏多和偏少年的合成差异(单位:℃)

    Figure 6. 

    Composite difference in 850 hPa temperature field between more and less cold vortex years chosen by early summer over Northeast China (unit: ℃)

    图 8 

    850 hPa(a)和300 hPa(b)相对湿度场在初夏东北冷涡活动异常偏多和偏少年的合成差异(单位:%)

    Figure 8. 

    Composite differences in relative humidity at 850 hPa (a) and 300 hPa (b) pressure levels between more and less cold vortex years chosen by early summer over Northeast China (unit: %)

    图 9 

    700 hPa垂直速度场在初夏东北冷涡活动异常偏多和偏少年的合成差异(单位:10-3Pa·s-1)

    Figure 9. 

    Composite difference in 700 hPa vertical velocity field between more and less cold vortex years chosen by early summer over Northeast China (unit: 10-3Pa·s-1)

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出版历程
收稿日期:  2016-07-31
修回日期:  2017-06-16
上线日期:  2017-10-15

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